Grid Reliability Tracker

Monitoring the growing strain on America's power grid

Reliability pressures are rising across all major regions. NERC's January 2026 Long-Term Reliability Assessment projects 224 GW of summer peak demand growth over the next decade — a 69% jump driven almost entirely by data center expansion. Generator retirements (105 GW over the decade) are outpacing new additions. At-risk this summer: New England, MISO, SPP, ERCOT, and parts of the Pacific Northwest. NERC recommends 35 GW of new interregional transmission as the single biggest reliability fix.

105 GW

Thermal retirements projected over next decade (NERC 2026)

2,600 GW

In interconnection queue

5+ yr

Avg. interconnection wait

830%

PJM capacity price spike

Regional Risk Assessment

ERCOT (Texas)

Thin reserve margins, rapid load growth from data centers, and limited interconnection to neighbors. Summer and winter peaks remain high-risk.

PJM (Mid-Atlantic)

Generation retirements outpacing new builds. Data center demand in Northern Virginia straining capacity. Record-high capacity prices signal stress.

MISO (Midwest)

Tight capacity in summer months. Coal retirements accelerating. Renewable integration challenges during low-wind periods.

SPP (Plains)

Winter storm vulnerability exposed. Heavy wind dependence creates balancing challenges. Interconnection queue backlog.

CAISO (California)

Improved after 2020 blackouts. Battery storage buildout helping. Still vulnerable during multi-day heat events.

ISO-NE (New England)

Winter gas constraints remain concern. Offshore wind coming online will help. Mystic generating station extended for reliability.

The Daily Mine tracks grid reliability across all major ISOs and RTOs, from ERCOT's thin margins to PJM's capacity crunch. Below are the current risk assessments and the key threats to keeping the lights on.

Key Threats

Generation Retirements
Coal and aging gas plants closing faster than new capacity comes online. 83 GW of thermal generation at risk through 2030.
Demand Growth
Data centers, EVs, electrification, and reshoring are driving the first sustained demand growth in 20 years. Some regions seeing 5%+ annual growth.
Interconnection Backlog
2,600 GW of projects are stuck in queue, mostly renewables and storage. Average wait time: 5+ years. FERC Order 2023 aims to help.
Extreme Weather
Winter Storm Uri (2021), Summer 2022 heat waves, and increasing storm frequency are testing grid limits.
Inverter-Based Resource Integration
Solar and wind require new operating procedures. Odessa disturbance (2021) showed risks of inadequate ride-through capability.

Key Players

Dominion Energy Duke Energy Southern Company AEP PG&E NextEra Energy

Grid Operators

ERCOT (Texas) PJM (Mid-Atlantic) MISO (Midwest) CAISO (California) NYISO (New York)

Latest Grid & Power Stories from Archive

Tracking NERC warnings, reserve margins, extreme weather impacts, and generation retirements

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