Opposition Risk Scorer | The Daily Mine

Answer 11 questions about your project. The tool calculates an Opposition Risk Score based on pattern analysis of major U.S. energy infrastructure projects and flags your highest-risk factors with targeted counter-strategies.

Section 1, Project Profile

Developer Type · weight 15

Merchant lines had ~25% success rate vs ~64% for utility-backed projects.

Regulated utility with existing service territory 0 points, lowest risk Utility joint venture 5 points Independent / merchant developer 15 points, highest risk

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Project Length · weight 5

Longer projects cross more jurisdictions and encounter more landowners.

Under 50 miles 0 points 50–150 miles 2 points 150–500 miles 3 points 500+ miles 5 points, highest risk

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Voltage & Visibility · weight 5

Higher-voltage overhead lines are more visually imposing and draw stronger aesthetic opposition.

Underground / submarine 0 points, lowest visibility Under 230 kV overhead 2 points 345–500 kV overhead 3 points 765 kV or HVDC overhead 5 points, most visible

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Section 2, Community Impact

Host-State Benefit Story · weight 20 (highest)

The #1 killer in the 44-project database. "Benefits leave state" framing appeared in nearly every project failure.

Strong: local jobs + tax base + reliability improvements in-state 0 points, strongest story Moderate / indirect: regional reliability, some local jobs 8 points Weak / abstract: "clean energy for everyone," no local specifics 15 points Benefits clearly flow to another state or market 20 points, most dangerous

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Eminent Domain Exposure · weight 12

Property rights was the most common single opposition argument in the 44-project database (12/44 projects).

No private land (submarine / existing ROW / public land only) 0 points Limited private parcels (<50 landowners) 4 points Significant private land (50–200 parcels) 8 points Extensive private land (200+ parcels) 12 points, highest exposure

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Route Sensitivity · weight 12

Iconic landscapes give opposition a moral vocabulary that financial compensation cannot address.

Industrial / agricultural corridor, no special designations 0 points Some environmental sensitivity, no iconic landscapes 4 points Crosses protected, scenic, or historic designated areas 8 points Crosses iconic landscape (National Park, Appalachian Trail, coastline) 12 points, most sensitive

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Section 3, Political Landscape

Number of State Jurisdictions · weight 8

Each additional state creates a potential regulatory chokepoint where opposition can derail the project.

Single state 0 points Two states 3 points Three states 5 points Four or more states 8 points

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Current Opposition Status · weight 10

"Opposition organized before developer" was true in most failed projects in the database.

No organized opposition yet / pre-announcement 0 points Some community awareness / concern but no organization 3 points Opposition groups actively forming 6 points Well-organized opposition already active and funded 10 points, most dangerous

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Coalition Readiness · weight 8 (inverted, more coalition = lower risk)

Every project that survived sustained opposition had a durable, multi-stakeholder pro-project coalition.

Strong: local officials, labor, economic development, customers, reliability validators 0 points, strongest position Partial: some supporters secured but notable gaps 3 points Minimal: developer plus engineering firm only 6 points None: no coalition building undertaken 8 points, most vulnerable

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Political Environment · weight 10

"State opposition is often fatal", especially for merchant projects without a utility sponsor.

State / local government actively supportive 0 points Neutral / position unknown 4 points Mixed signals: some supporters, some opponents in government 7 points Hostile: state / local government opposed or anti-project legislation pending 10 points, highest risk

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Section 4, Need Case

Need Case Strength · weight 15

Projects with contestable need cases had only ~33% success rate vs ~63% for reliability-backed projects.

Reliability-critical, backed by ISO/RTO planning study 0 points, strongest case Economic / congestion benefits with solid modeling 5 points Policy-driven (state renewable mandate, federal program) 8 points Speculative / market-driven (merchant export) 15 points, weakest case

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▶ Assessment Results

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Risk Factor Breakdown

Historical Comparison, 44-Project Database

Counter-Strategy Recommendations

Scoring model derived from analysis of 44 major U.S. transmission projects (1990s–2026). Research by The Daily Mine. Based on Nittler (2024), "Tackling Social Opposition to Transmission Infrastructure," Duke University Nicholas School of the Environment. This tool is for analytical purposes only and does not guarantee project outcomes.