Energy Transition Tracker
Where is US energy heading? The big-picture view of America's shift from fossil fuels to clean electricity, updated with the latest EIA data.
Last updated: March 2026 · Sources: EIA, BNEF, FERC, RMI
43%
Low-Carbon Generation
↑ from 38% in 2020
16%
Coal Share (and falling)
↓ from 33% in 2015
45 GW
Clean Capacity Added (2025 YTD)
↑ record year
$378B
US Clean Investment (2025)
↑ 3.5% YoY
99%
New 2026 Capacity = Clean
solar + wind + storage
Natural gas dominates at ~40%, but clean sources now produce 43% of US electricity. Coal has been cut in half since 2015. Wind + solar alone now beat coal by 17%.
How the Mix Is Shifting (2015 → 2025)
2015
Natural Gas32.5%
Coal32.6%
Nuclear19.2%
Wind4.6%
Solar0.6%
Hydro6.0%
2020
Natural Gas40.3%
Coal19.1%
Nuclear19.5%
Wind8.3%
Solar2.2%
Hydro7.0%
2025
Natural Gas39.8%
Coal15.5%
Nuclear17.4%
Wind10.1%
Solar8.9%
Hydro5.8%
Milestone: In the first 11 months of 2025, wind + solar combined produced 16.9% more electricity than coal, and 10.1% more than nuclear. Renewables now account for 25.7% of total US electricity.
Sources: EIA Electric Power Monthly (Nov 2025), Low Carbon Power, Wikipedia/EIA historical data
The US still has ~170 GW of coal capacity across 205 plants, but ~56 GW is tracked for retirement by 2030. Political headwinds slowed 2025 retirements to just 2.7 GW. the lowest since 2011: but economics remain unfavorable for coal.
Coal Capacity Remaining (GW)
Annual Coal Retirements (GW)
Slowdown alert: Utilities expected to close ~8.5 GW of coal in 2025 but actually retired only 2.7 GW. the lowest since 2011. Trump administration emergency orders have delayed some closures, but ~56 GW remains tracked for retirement through 2030.
Major Planned Coal Retirements
| Plant |
State |
Capacity (MW) |
Target Year |
Status |
| Scherer | GA | 3,520 | 2028-2035 | Phased |
| Martin Lake | TX | 2,250 | 2027-2028 | Planned |
| Monroe | MI | 3,280 | 2028-2032 | Phased |
| Gibson | IN | 3,345 | 2028-2034 | Phased |
| Labadie | MO | 2,372 | 2036 | Long-range |
| Campbell (units 1-2) | MI | 614 | 2025 | Delayed |
| Jim Bridger | WY | 2,120 | 2027-2030 | Planned |
| Navajo Generating Station | AZ | 2,250 | : | Closed 2019 |
| Comanche (unit 3) | CO | 750 | 2031 | Planned |
| San Juan | NM | 1,848 | : | Closed 2022 |
"The last coal plant": At current retirement rates, most projections see US coal generation falling below 5% of the mix by the early 2030s. Utility IRPs collectively plan 73 GW of coal retirements through 2035, while adding 226 GW of wind and solar.
Sources: EIA, NYT, FactSet, RMI State of Utility Planning Q4 2025, Turbomachinery Magazine
2025 was a record year for clean energy additions. Solar added 22+ GW of utility-scale capacity in just 11 months. Battery storage exploded by 49%. And 99%+ of planned 2026 capacity is solar, wind, or storage.
Annual Capacity Additions by Source (GW)
22.2 GW
Utility Solar Added (2025 Jan-Nov)
↑ 33.9% vs 2024
13.4 GW
Battery Storage Added (2025 Jan-Nov)
↑ 49.4% growth
4.2 GW
Wind Added (2025 Jan-Nov)
↓ slower year for wind
69.6 GW
Planned Clean + Storage (next 12 mo)
renewables + batteries
Solar Growth: Utility-Scale Generation (TWh)
Battery Storage Cumulative Capacity (GW)
2026 outlook: EIA projects 37.2 GW of new utility-scale solar, 21.5 GW of battery storage, and 10.8 GW of wind (onshore + offshore) over the next 12 months. Combined, renewables + storage will account for 99.2% of all net new capacity.
Sources: EIA Electric Power Monthly (Jan 2026), SUN DAY Campaign, FERC Energy Infrastructure Update
Global clean energy investment hit a record $2.3 trillion in 2025. The US invested $378 billion, up 3.5% despite policy headwinds. Money is flowing toward renewables and electrification, not fossil fuels.
US Clean Energy Investment ($B)
Where the Money Goes (2025)
Investment Comparison: Clean vs Fossil ($B/year)
The IRA effect: Despite political uncertainty, the Inflation Reduction Act continues to drive investment. Utility IRPs plan 226 GW of wind + solar additions vs 100 GW of gas through 2035. Clean energy spending outpaces fossil fuels ~3:1 globally.
Sources: BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2026, RMI, IEA
Some states are racing ahead. Iowa gets ~60% of its electricity from wind. California leads in solar. The Midwest: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, is emerging as a clean energy powerhouse.
Highest Renewable Penetration
-
IA
62%
-
SD
58%
-
KS
55%
-
OK
48%
-
VT
~99%
-
WA
77%
-
OR
72%
-
CA
52%
Renewable % of total in-state generation (2024). VT/WA/OR include hydro.
Most Coal Retired Since 2010
-
OH
~17 GW
-
GA
~14 GW
-
PA
~13 GW
-
WV
~9 GW
-
KY
~8 GW
-
AL
~7.5 GW
-
IN
~7 GW
-
NC
~6.5 GW
Cumulative coal capacity retired since 2010 (approximate).
Midwest rising: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are making big strides in clean energy policy and deployment, described as a "shining light" for the transition. Texas leads in raw capacity with the most wind + solar GW installed of any state.
Sources: EIA State Electricity Profiles, Wikipedia, PV Tech
The headline metrics that tell you whether the transition is on track, emissions, clean share, costs, and grid reliability.
US Power Sector CO₂ Emissions (Mt)
Clean Energy % of Generation
-41%
Power Sector Emissions Since 2005
coal→gas + renewables
384
gCO₂/kWh (2024)
↓ from 393 in 2023
12.7¢
Avg Retail Price/kWh (2024)
↑ slightly from inflation
99.97%
Grid Reliability (uptime)
transition hasn't hurt reliability
Average Retail Electricity Price (¢/kWh)
Bottom line: The US power sector's carbon intensity continues to fall, from 393 gCO₂/kWh in 2023 to 384 in 2024. Emissions are down 41% from 2005. Clean energy is winning on economics: new solar and wind are the cheapest sources of electricity in most of the country.
Sources: C2ES, Ember US Electricity 2025, EIA, EPA