Energy Transition Tracker

Where is US energy heading? The big-picture view of America's shift from fossil fuels to clean electricity, updated with the latest EIA data.
Last updated: March 2026  ·  Sources: EIA, BNEF, FERC, RMI
43%
Low-Carbon Generation
↑ from 38% in 2020
16%
Coal Share (and falling)
↓ from 33% in 2015
45 GW
Clean Capacity Added (2025 YTD)
↑ record year
$378B
US Clean Investment (2025)
↑ 3.5% YoY
99%
New 2026 Capacity = Clean
solar + wind + storage

US Electricity Generation Mix

Natural gas dominates at ~40%, but clean sources now produce 43% of US electricity. Coal has been cut in half since 2015. Wind + solar alone now beat coal by 17%.

2025 Generation Mix

How the Mix Is Shifting (2015 → 2025)

2015
Natural Gas32.5%
Coal32.6%
Nuclear19.2%
Wind4.6%
Solar0.6%
Hydro6.0%
2020
Natural Gas40.3%
Coal19.1%
Nuclear19.5%
Wind8.3%
Solar2.2%
Hydro7.0%
2025
Natural Gas39.8%
Coal15.5%
Nuclear17.4%
Wind10.1%
Solar8.9%
Hydro5.8%
Milestone: In the first 11 months of 2025, wind + solar combined produced 16.9% more electricity than coal, and 10.1% more than nuclear. Renewables now account for 25.7% of total US electricity.

Sources: EIA Electric Power Monthly (Nov 2025), Low Carbon Power, Wikipedia/EIA historical data

Coal Retirement Tracker

The US still has ~170 GW of coal capacity across 205 plants, but ~56 GW is tracked for retirement by 2030. Political headwinds slowed 2025 retirements to just 2.7 GW. the lowest since 2011: but economics remain unfavorable for coal.

Coal Capacity Remaining (GW)

Annual Coal Retirements (GW)

Slowdown alert: Utilities expected to close ~8.5 GW of coal in 2025 but actually retired only 2.7 GW. the lowest since 2011. Trump administration emergency orders have delayed some closures, but ~56 GW remains tracked for retirement through 2030.

Major Planned Coal Retirements

Plant State Capacity (MW) Target Year Status
SchererGA3,5202028-2035Phased
Martin LakeTX2,2502027-2028Planned
MonroeMI3,2802028-2032Phased
GibsonIN3,3452028-2034Phased
LabadieMO2,3722036Long-range
Campbell (units 1-2)MI6142025Delayed
Jim BridgerWY2,1202027-2030Planned
Navajo Generating StationAZ2,250: Closed 2019
Comanche (unit 3)CO7502031Planned
San JuanNM1,848: Closed 2022
"The last coal plant": At current retirement rates, most projections see US coal generation falling below 5% of the mix by the early 2030s. Utility IRPs collectively plan 73 GW of coal retirements through 2035, while adding 226 GW of wind and solar.

Sources: EIA, NYT, FactSet, RMI State of Utility Planning Q4 2025, Turbomachinery Magazine

Renewable Additions Scoreboard

2025 was a record year for clean energy additions. Solar added 22+ GW of utility-scale capacity in just 11 months. Battery storage exploded by 49%. And 99%+ of planned 2026 capacity is solar, wind, or storage.

Annual Capacity Additions by Source (GW)

22.2 GW
Utility Solar Added (2025 Jan-Nov)
↑ 33.9% vs 2024
13.4 GW
Battery Storage Added (2025 Jan-Nov)
↑ 49.4% growth
4.2 GW
Wind Added (2025 Jan-Nov)
↓ slower year for wind
69.6 GW
Planned Clean + Storage (next 12 mo)
renewables + batteries

Solar Growth: Utility-Scale Generation (TWh)

Battery Storage Cumulative Capacity (GW)

2026 outlook: EIA projects 37.2 GW of new utility-scale solar, 21.5 GW of battery storage, and 10.8 GW of wind (onshore + offshore) over the next 12 months. Combined, renewables + storage will account for 99.2% of all net new capacity.

Sources: EIA Electric Power Monthly (Jan 2026), SUN DAY Campaign, FERC Energy Infrastructure Update

Investment Flows

Global clean energy investment hit a record $2.3 trillion in 2025. The US invested $378 billion, up 3.5% despite policy headwinds. Money is flowing toward renewables and electrification, not fossil fuels.

US Clean Energy Investment ($B)

Where the Money Goes (2025)

Investment Comparison: Clean vs Fossil ($B/year)

The IRA effect: Despite political uncertainty, the Inflation Reduction Act continues to drive investment. Utility IRPs plan 226 GW of wind + solar additions vs 100 GW of gas through 2035. Clean energy spending outpaces fossil fuels ~3:1 globally.

Sources: BloombergNEF Energy Transition Investment Trends 2026, RMI, IEA

State Transition Leaders

Some states are racing ahead. Iowa gets ~60% of its electricity from wind. California leads in solar. The Midwest: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, is emerging as a clean energy powerhouse.

Highest Renewable Penetration

  • IA
    62%
  • SD
    58%
  • KS
    55%
  • OK
    48%
  • VT
    ~99%
  • WA
    77%
  • OR
    72%
  • CA
    52%

Renewable % of total in-state generation (2024). VT/WA/OR include hydro.

Most Coal Retired Since 2010

  • OH
    ~17 GW
  • GA
    ~14 GW
  • PA
    ~13 GW
  • WV
    ~9 GW
  • KY
    ~8 GW
  • AL
    ~7.5 GW
  • IN
    ~7 GW
  • NC
    ~6.5 GW

Cumulative coal capacity retired since 2010 (approximate).

Midwest rising: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are making big strides in clean energy policy and deployment, described as a "shining light" for the transition. Texas leads in raw capacity with the most wind + solar GW installed of any state.

Sources: EIA State Electricity Profiles, Wikipedia, PV Tech

The Numbers That Matter

The headline metrics that tell you whether the transition is on track, emissions, clean share, costs, and grid reliability.

US Power Sector CO₂ Emissions (Mt)

Clean Energy % of Generation

-41%
Power Sector Emissions Since 2005
coal→gas + renewables
384
gCO₂/kWh (2024)
↓ from 393 in 2023
12.7¢
Avg Retail Price/kWh (2024)
↑ slightly from inflation
99.97%
Grid Reliability (uptime)
transition hasn't hurt reliability

Average Retail Electricity Price (¢/kWh)

Bottom line: The US power sector's carbon intensity continues to fall, from 393 gCO₂/kWh in 2023 to 384 in 2024. Emissions are down 41% from 2005. Clean energy is winning on economics: new solar and wind are the cheapest sources of electricity in most of the country.

Sources: C2ES, Ember US Electricity 2025, EIA, EPA