Power Sector Emissions Tracker
Tracking CO₂ emissions from US electricity generation, the sector that's declined the most, and still has the farthest to go.
Last updated: March 2026 · Sources: EIA, EPA, C2ES · Data through 2024
National Emissions Trend
US power sector CO₂ emissions peaked in 2007 and have fallen steadily since, driven by the coal-to-gas switch and renewable energy growth. The decline has slowed recently as easy coal retirements are exhausted and gas generation grows.
Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, March 2025
State Rankings
Texas dominates power sector emissions at 185 MMmt, more than double the #2 state (Florida). West Virginia and Wyoming have the highest share of emissions from electricity generation. Vermont produces essentially zero power sector CO₂ thanks to hydro and nuclear imports.
| # | State | Emissions | % of State Total |
|---|
| # | State | Emissions | % of State Total |
|---|
Source: EIA State Energy Data System, 2023 data. Emissions = electric power sector only.
Emissions by Fuel Type
The big story: coal emissions have been cut roughly in half since 2005, but natural gas has risen to partially offset those gains. Coal went from 50% of generation to ~16% in 2024. Gas rose from 19% to ~40%. The net effect is still a massive CO₂ reduction, gas emits about half the CO₂ per MWh.
Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, Tables 11.1–11.6. Coal includes coal and coal coke. Gas includes natural gas. Oil includes petroleum liquids and coke.
The Coal-to-Gas Math
Between 2005 and 2019, power sector CO₂ fell by 820 MMmt. Of that decline:
- 65% (~532 MMmt) came from coal-to-gas fuel switching
- 30% (~248 MMmt) came from renewable energy growth (wind + solar)
- 5% (~40 MMmt) came from reduced petroleum generation
Gas emits 976 lbs CO₂/MWh vs. coal's 2,257 lbs CO₂/MWh: less than half. But gas is not zero-carbon, and further progress requires replacing gas with clean energy, not just coal with gas.
Emissions Intensity
The carbon intensity of the US grid has fallen 45% since 2005: from about 1,322 lbs CO₂ per MWh to an estimated ~730 lbs in 2024. This means every kilowatt-hour you consume is significantly cleaner than it was two decades ago.
Source: EIA State Electricity Profiles; CMU Power Sector Carbon Index; Statista. 2024 value is estimated.
What's Driving the Decline?
- Coal → Gas: Gas plants emit ~57% less CO₂ per MWh than coal. As coal's share dropped from 50% to 16%, grid intensity plummeted.
- Renewables surge: Wind + solar went from 2% of generation (2005) to 17% (2024): all zero-carbon.
- Nuclear stability: Nuclear held steady at ~19-20% of generation, providing ~800 TWh of zero-carbon power annually.
- Efficiency gains: New combined-cycle gas plants are ~30% more efficient than old coal plants.
EPA Power Plant Rule: Status
The federal regulation of power plant greenhouse gases has been one of the most contentious environmental policy battles in US history. Here's where things stand.
Current Status: Proposed Full Repeal
On June 11, 2025, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin proposed to repeal all greenhouse gas emissions standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants under Section 111 of the Clean Air Act. The EPA argues that power plant GHG emissions "do not contribute significantly to dangerous air pollution" within the meaning of the statute.
The proposed repeal would eliminate both the Obama-era 2015 standards for new plants and the Biden-era 2024 rule for new and existing plants. EPA estimates this would save the power sector $19 billion in regulatory costs over two decades (~$1.2B/year).
What This Means
If the repeal is finalized, there would be no federal greenhouse gas limits on power plants for the first time since 2015. Market forces (cheap gas and renewables) will continue driving some emissions reductions, but the pace could slow significantly, particularly for existing coal plants that might have otherwise retired under regulatory pressure.
States with their own climate targets (California, New York, etc.) will continue independent action. The regulatory vacuum at the federal level puts more weight on state policies and market economics.
State Climate Targets
22 states plus DC have binding or executive greenhouse gas reduction targets. Only California and New Jersey met their 2020 goals. Many states face steep challenges reaching 2030 and 2050 targets. With federal regulation stalling, state action is more critical than ever.
| State | Type | Near-Term Target | Long-Term Target | Key Policy | Progress |
|---|
Source: C2ES State GHG Targets Map; state legislation. Progress assessments based on latest available emissions data and policy analysis.
The Math: Net-Zero Power Sector
Getting to a zero-carbon grid means eliminating 1,427 MMmt of annual CO₂. Here's what the numbers say about what's left to do.
Breaking It Down
- Coal (the "easy" part): 172 GW of coal remains, down from 313 GW in 2005. At the current retirement rate (~6-8 GW/year), coal could be largely gone by the mid-2030s. But retirements are slowing, the remaining plants are often in states with weak climate policy and strong political support for coal.
- Gas (the hard part): Gas plants now produce ~43% of US electricity. You can't just shut them off, they provide baseload and peaking power. Options: replace with renewables + storage, retrofit with CCS (expensive, unproven at scale), or convert to hydrogen (requires massive H₂ infrastructure). This is the central challenge of grid decarbonization.
- Clean energy math: The US currently has ~420 GW of wind + solar + battery capacity. Studies suggest we need 2,000+ GW of clean energy to fully replace fossil generation. That means roughly 5x the current installed base, while simultaneously building transmission, storage, and firm clean power.
- The timeline: At current deployment rates (~50 GW/year of new clean energy), reaching 2,000 GW would take ~30 years. Hitting net-zero by 2035 (the old Biden target) would require tripling the pace to 150+ GW/year. The IRA accelerated deployment, but the pace is still far short of what models require.
Methodology & Sources
This tracker compiles data from official government sources:
- EIA Monthly Energy Review: National CO₂ emissions by sector and fuel type (Tables 11.1–11.6)
- EIA State Energy Data System: State-level emissions and sector breakdowns
- EIA State Electricity Profiles: Emissions intensity (lbs CO₂/MWh) by state
- EPA eGRID: Power plant-level emissions data
- C2ES: State GHG targets compilation
- CMU Power Sector Carbon Index: Monthly emissions intensity tracking
Emissions values represent CO₂ only from fossil fuel combustion in the electric power sector. They do not include upstream methane leakage, other greenhouse gases, or industrial CHP. 2024 values are based on EIA preliminary data published March 2025.